Why Should the Mets Sign Jose Reyes?

Why should the Mets sign Jose Reyes? According to an obviously reliable message-board commenter, when the New York Mets have had Jose Reyes in the lineup during the last nine years, the team's record is 538-496, good for a winning percentage of .520; without Reyes, that number dips to .430, or 182-241. Translation: as Reyes goes, so go the Mets. All the more reason that now is the time for the team to cut ties.

That's hard for Mets fans to hear. Reyes is certainly one of the most popular players on the team; he's a legitimate All-Star, a some-time MVP candidate, and, when he's right, the best fantasy baseball player the Mets have had since Mike Piazza. (That doesn't matter to reality, but for me and many others it's key!)

Of course, when Reyes is "right" is what keeps him from being truly elite. You don't need a refresher course on Reyes's litany of injuries during the last nine years, but let's just remember that he's only played in 150 games or more four times in his career, and those four times happened consecutively: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Since then, Reyes has played in 36, 133 and 123 games, respectively. The devil's advocate would bring up the fact that Reyes's four years of durability coincided with the best Mets teams of the last decade, but -- when it comes to the Mets -- "best" is a relative term; the 2005 team finished 3rd, the 2006 team lost in the NLCS to the St. Louis Cardinals, the 2007 and 2008 teams took part in a pair of the biggest collapses in regular-season baseball history, and finished second. The Joe Torre Yankees, this was not.

Which brings us to Reyes here in 2011 and beyond. He's a valuable player for a contender; for a non-contender, which the Mets are, he's a frustrating expenditure with limited trade value. Consider: Reyes will only turn 29 next June, but he's never been able to stay on the field, and that's only going to get worse as he gets into his 30s. Even more alarming: his best asset -- his speed -- will only diminish as well. Whoever invests money in Reyes should know up front that at least half of his deal will be a complete loss. Why should the Mets take that chance, especially when they aren't going to win anything in the next few years anyway?

Back in May, Mets owner Fred Wilpon was criticized for saying that Reyes was a fool if he thought he was going to get "Carl Crawford money." That being: a long-term contract worth upwards of $140 million. Wilpon was wrong, but only because Reyes probably will get "Carl Crawford money"; in a world where the Philadelphia Phillies just gave Jonathan Papelbon a comically bad four-year contract (with a vesting option that could push it to five years), Reyes will certainly command a high-value deal. He's a property that some silly team -- like Florida or Milwaukee -- will sign with the hopes of tapping into his potential. They won't, of course, because -- as Mets fans know -- Jose Reyes doesn't care about his potential.

Here's the thing about Reyes: he's a dog. He's not a "winner," which is a bullshit term -- one that someone dumb like Mike Francesa would use -- until you actually realize that being a "winner" means more than just collecting rings like Derek Jeter.

David Wright isn't technically a "winner" either -- he's never won anything and he fails in big spots -- but you can tell the effort is there. Wright tries like a winner, which is really all you can ask of anyone in any field. Give it your all, leave it on the field, and see where the chips fall. Those are cliches, but they are also true.

Watching Reyes play for the last decade, you'd be hard-pressed to walk away with anything but this opinion of him as a baseball player: he's a dynamic, once-a-generation talent who flakes out more often than not. That's not just because of injuries. Reyes is a bully hitter: when things are going well, he'll pile up the numbers; when things aren't, he'll sulk and stink. Did you know in his nine seasons with the Mets, Reyes has only had an OPS over .800 three times? In his eight years, Wright has produced an OPS over 800 seven times.

There's a reason for this -- Reyes isn't the power hitter that Wright is -- but it shows the limit of his value. Reyes isn't a Ricky Henderson-type leadoff hitter who sets the table; he gets on-base at a .340 clip and doesn't have as much extra-base power. He gets his triples because of his speed; when that speed drops, you could be looking at a player who will be lucky to reach an OPS of 700. And if his stats drop, Reyes will sulk like Willie Randolph was the manager. It's a car wreck you can see materializing from years away. The Mets don't need a player like that -- earning the salary Reyes will likely earn -- in five years, right when they might be contending again.

Which brings us back to square one: Why should the Mets sign Jose Reyes? Easy. They shouldn't.